I lived through the 1982-83 and 97-98 El Niños as a commercial sea urchin diver. I know what a super El Niño does to the nearshore rocky intertidal. Death! It is coming again and currently has begun in the Galapagos. SST’s there have reached historic highs already: 30C or 86F. The coral bleaching watch is at level two and forecasts 12 weeks out are still level two. Heat, less oxygen, less nutrients, higher respiratory rates, less food, less kelp … mass death.
A super here in Southern California results in massive invertebrate die-offs, kelp losses ( in an already weak kelp system ) mass bird die-offs, mass pinniped die-offs, and the potential for large hazardous algae blooms.
1982-83 and 97-98 were followed by strong La Niña years directly after the die-offs that I witnessed . There was something like the recovery that follows a forest fire, and it was wonderful to see life come back with such vigor. But in the intervening four decades since those last supers, the average SST has increased and the La Niña has become weak. The kelp and the nearshore reefs need cold water and nutrients to rebuild, and just going from far too hot back to tepid doesn’t result in the blooms that I saw forty years ago.
There are currently huge areas where California’s nearshore reefs are dominated by purple urchins. Purple urchins hit thermal limits around 75F and suffer huge mortality events when the SST exceeds their thermal limit. They will likely see huge population reductions. This is something I have waited forty years to see again. I paid my permit fees to keep my license to dive sea urchins this year. I first bought my license in 1973 and have kept it ever since ($1,000 this year). I am going to go diving this year. My farm will likely have to deal with the river flooding badly . Diesel at $8 a gallon locally will make both fishing and farming very difficult. I really hope to see a La Niña after this is over, but not seeing one isn’t something you hear scientists worried about.
I am getting ready for the floods but I fear the river. I am getting ready for the ocean to die and recover, but somehow I expect it will only recover to something less than the world I once knew.
The coral won’t recover from this in places I never saw, I never knew. Salmon season opened locally but I heard they were catching bonito in Avila and squid showed up in Southeast Alaska.
